Despite the overall growth, exports to the United States, historically an important market for South African agricultural goods, declined sharply following the imposition of new tariffs. According to Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, U.S. shipments dropped about 11% in the third quarter of 2025 and plunged nearly 39% in the final quarter.
“The tariffs imposed on some products weighed heavily on shipments to the U.S. in the latter part of the year,” Mr. Sihlobo said, pointing to growing uncertainty over South Africa’s access to the American market.
As shipments to the United States weakened, South African exporters increasingly turned to other regions. In the fourth quarter, more than half of the country’s agricultural exports, about 53% went to destinations within Africa, while Asia and the Middle East together accounted for roughly 17%. The European Union received close to 16% of exports, leaving the Americas, including the United States, at just about 4% of the total.
Analysts say the shift illustrates a broader reorientation of South Africa’s agricultural trade, with regional and emerging markets playing a more central role. Should tariff barriers persist in major Western markets, that realignment may deepen, positioning Africa, Asia and the Middle East as key engines of future growth.
Beyond shifts in destination markets, the composition of South Africa’s farm exports continues to reflect the country’s competitive strengths in high-value produce. Citrus, table grapes, apples, wine and nuts remain among the strongest performers, supported by established cold-chain infrastructure and a logistics network that links farms in the Western and Eastern Cape to major ports. Industry groups say sustained investment in storage, port efficiency and phytosanitary compliance has helped exporters remain competitive even as global shipping costs and regulatory requirements have become more demanding.
Still, economists caution that the sector’s long-term outlook will depend on policy certainty and market access, particularly as exporters navigate tighter trade rules in advanced economies and the growing importance of regional trade under Africa’s free-trade framework. Weather volatility, persistent pressure on rail and port operations, and uncertainty around preferential access to the United States are seen as key risks. For now, analysts say, the record export figures mask a fragile balance, one in which diversification has become less a strategic option than an economic necessity.
